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UK recession coming

Started by: tradertall
On: 14/08/2019 | 12:01
Replies: 19
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by: tradertall
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:01

The bond yield curve on UK government debt inverted on Wednesday for the first time since the global financial crisis.

 

In what is sometimes seen as a precursor of recession, the yield on the 10-year gilt fell below the yield on the two-year gilt shortly for the first time since August 2008.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-49297164

 

That's after our GDP contracted by -0.2% in Q2 (vs. expanded by +0.2% in the Eurozone).

 

 

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Message 1 of 20
by: nefarius
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:08

This is too complex to understand. Smiley Very Happy

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Message 2 of 20
by: sarahaxon
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:21
In English, it means that it is cheaper for the UK government to borrow money over 10 years than to borrow in the short term (eg over 3 months/2years).

This is rare and usually indicates that the market expects weak growth or a recession in the immediate term.
Message 3 of 20
by: 123kingarthur
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:26
@tradertall do not worry about all that cods wallop it said we are doing well on the BBC
Message 4 of 20
by: 123kingarthur
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:29

@tradertall Dont worry about all that  it said the country is doing well on the money programme

Message 5 of 20
by: foolish
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:36

"That's after our GDP contracted by -0.2% in Q2 (vs. expanded by +0.2% in the Eurozone)."

 

If Q3 shows similar contraction then we are officially in recession.

 

Message 6 of 20
by: kate1028
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:41

@123kingarthurwrote:

@tradertalldo not worry about all that cods wallop it said we are doing well on the BBC

That's the spirit @123kingarthur - people just believe what they want to believe.   Being an optimist - I'll go for this view.  Could be just as rubbish as all the others, but I prefer the positive outlook.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1164353/Brexit-News-economist-economy-no-deal-GDP-growth

 

 

Message 7 of 20
by: gvmhb
on: 14/08/2019 | 12:45

Some more good news for climate change then Smiley Wink

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Message 8 of 20
by: andyslc
on: 14/08/2019 | 13:32

Perhaps even more marrying is that the US did the same and the last 3 times this happened US recessions soon followed.

 

Whilst UK wage growth is still going up it is still not on a par with pre 2008 levels which explains why those at the lower end of the pay scale are still struggling. The rise was also skewed by a bump to public sector worker pay. Also in that article is an unexpected rise in the CPI and the higher RPI has been used to justify a bigger rise in rail fares. Smiley Sad

On the plus side unemployment figures are good but those ugly zero hour contracts means workers are vulnerable, particularly if we head into a recession. 

Not all a bed of roses but not all doom and gloom either. Would another US recession be as bad globally as the last one? 

Veni vidi dormivi
Message 9 of 20
by: cps15966
on: 14/08/2019 | 13:48
All hail Brexit, it's brought nothing but good things to our country so far
cps15966 - The creator of the idea for @ mentions you have all come to use and love Smiley Tongue
Message 10 of 20